My estimate of early votes for NORTH CAROLINA:

Obama 51.5%   1,210,617
McCain 45.6%  1,071,924
Other 2.8%       65,819 (BARR)

My estimate is derived from two sources. Voter demographics come from the state's statistics through 10-31-08. Sub-group preferences come from the latest R2K poll for DailyKos.

I wanted to do this for my home state after doing it for Georgia earlier today:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/11/1/1728 4/0633

North Carolina provides the breakdown by party as well, whereas GA only does gender and race. Including party actually boosts Obama's total (maybe his total would be higher in GA if I had that data?). Looking at party only, the estimate is 54.7-42.5 Obama. Race and gender both come in around 49.9-47.1 Obama. I simply took the average of the 3 to come up with my estimates.

Some interesting notes about the difference between Georgia and North Carolina. While Georgia has a higher black population, North Carolina has much more whites (students, progressives, wealthy) that are willing to a) vote Democratic and/or b) vote for a black guy. To be fair, though, white Southerners vote against White Democrats like John Kerry, so it's a little more complicated. Massive black turnout would have a greater effect in GA, but with current demographics, NC is likelier to go blue than GA. Some say GA is like MS plus Atlanta. Some say NC is like VA without the DC suburbs.

Hope you guys find this and the GA estimates useful. At the very least, Obama's early vote lead has given probably even bigger leads to Jim Martin (GA-SEN) and Kay Hagan (NC-SEN).

My estimate of early votes:

Obama 52.0%   1,037,395
McCain 45.2%    901,735
Other 2.8%       55,860

My estimate is derived from two sources. Voter demographics come from the state's statistics, summarized in a DailyKos diary here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1 1/1/144916/739/833/649024

The race/gender polling data come from a Research 2000 Poll commissioned for DailyKos:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1 0/31/124032/16/876/647988

Based on the R2K poll, I estimated voter preference based on race/gender, which are clearly the two dominant factors available:

White Males: 77-14 McCain
White Females: 61-30 McCain
Black Males: 91-4 Obama
Black Females: 91-4 Obama
Other Males: 67-8
Other Females: 67-8

The state's early voter composition is as follows:

White Males: 26.8%
White Females: 33.4%
Black Males: 13.1%
Black Females: 22.0%
Other Males: 2.2%
Other Females: 2.5%

It looks like early voting has closed in Georgia, and Obama starts with about a 135K advantage in the bank. Assuming turnout is 20% higher than in 2004, McCain will need to win election day voters by about 6-8 points. I suspect it will be a nailbiter.

I saw this on TV yesterday and thought I was in the Twilight Zone. This morning, I found the transcript online, and it's true:

These are John McCain's words (emphasis in CAPS are mine):

"In a radio interview revealed today, [Obama] said that one of the quote -- 'tragedies' of the civil rights movement is that it didn't bring about a redistribution of wealth in our society. He said, and I quote, 'One of the tragedies of the Civil Rights movement was because the Civil Rights movement became so court-focused I think that there was a tendency to lose track of the political and community organizing and activities on the ground that are able to put together the actual coalitions of power through which you bring about redistributive change.' That is what change means for Barack the Redistributor: IT MEANS TAKING YOUR MONEY AND GIVING IT TO SOMEONE ELSE. He believes in redistributing wealth, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs. He is more interested in controlling wealth than in creating it, in redistributing money instead of spreading opportunity. I AM GOING TO CREATE WEALTH FOR ALL AMERICANS, BY CREATING OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL AMERICANS."

Here's the transcript:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2008/10/mccain_criticizes_obama_on_tax .html

Look for it at around the 4:30 mark here on youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jahysbvdN 8I

Here's what's disturbing about this. McCain is basically saying that African-Americans should have remained in poverty, by and large, after the Civil Rights Movement. McCain must think blacks are disproportionately poor because of laziness, not because they were dealt a bad hand. Further, if McCain is all of a sudden questioning America's commitment to fairness by having progressive taxation, i.e. redistributing wealth, then he's implicitly claiming that African-Americans were given an unfair ADVANTAGE these past 40 years. This is race warfare at its worst.

Following his Civil Rights construction, "YOUR" money would refer to black folks, wouldn't it? I know we're talking about a lag of 40 years, but he's obviously stringing the crowd along. The last sentence is completely nonsensical. He wants to create wealth for ALL Americans, but he's already admitted that he just wants to preserve wealth for those who have it. His tax policies clearly demostrate this. How exactly is he going to create OPPORTUNITY for all Americans if he objects to the philosophy of giving all Americans a reasonable chance at the American dream?

Let's be clear here: he is saying this at rallies that are over 97% white, as are all the rallies McCain and Palin hold. McCain and Palin are trying to feed the most base instincts of some white voters in a last ditch attempt at becoming president. This is utterly shameful. This is merely another notch in an incredibly dishonorable campaign.

Cindy McCain has inserted herself into the political campaign, asking Barack Obama to "change shoes" with her in response to Obama's purported vote to cut funding for the troops. With this "logic" McCain has also cut funding for her son, Palin's son, and Biden's son. Not to mention millions of other troops. Cindy said the vote sent a "cold chill" down her spine. Let's think about what else could have given her the chills....

Cindy, did you get a cold chill when your husband said this to you:

"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you cu*t."

Did you get the cold chill when you found out your romance with McCain was an affair?

Did you get a cold chill when you found out the "other woman" was a disabled woman who suffered terribly while her husband was a POW, just to be thrown to curve?

Did you get a cold chill when you realized you were having an affair with a married father almost 20 years older than you?

Did you get the cold chill when you realized that a 43-old John McCain married you, a 25-year Beer heiress, just one month after McCain left his ex-wife?

Did you get a cold chill when Nancy Reagan denounced you and Sen. McCain for the despicable treatment of McCain's ex-wife?

Maybe your cold chill is the side affect of being a crackhead? How many different prescription drugs were you addicted to?

I attended Sen. Obama's campaign rally today in Asheville, NC, and it was amazing. Asheville is located in the mountains of Western North Carolina, a very red area. Asheville itself, however, is a fairly liberal oasis surrounded by a sea of deep red. Police estimates indicate that Obama drew 28,000 people to the Asheville High Stadium, an unbelievable feat considering this state has not seen a major presidential candidate in many decades!

Let's put this number in perspective. In 2004, John Kerry got 51,868 votes in Buncombe County (Asheville is the county seat) and Bush got 52,391 votes. Yet Obama was able to draw MORE THAN HALF of either Bush's or Kerry's vote total for a rally. Simply Amazing! However, some of the people were from South Carolina or Tennessee, but the vast majority were from these parts.

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/El ec/Results/resultsby_county_single.asp?E C=11xx02xx2004GENERAL2004ABUNCOMBE&c ontest_name=PRESIDENT

On the heels of last week's shocking poll, showing Obama up 2 points in North Carolina, Rasmussen confirms that last week's poll was not a fluke. Now, Obama is up three points in my state of North Carolina. It isn't clear what kind of turnout profile he's using, but that would make a big difference in North Carolina (just look at the faulty demographics used by SUSA a few weeks back that showed McCain up 20). Despite the SUSA polls and others showing McCain up big following the Republican convention, Obama didn't pull out of the state, suggesting his internal numbers showed an even race. It looks like those numbers were right.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election

Right Wing strategists are talking about bringing back the Jeremiah Wright story as another act of desperation, and although it's old news, this kind of tactic would probably work best in NC than all the other 'toss-up' states. If they go that route, we need to talk about McCain cheating on and leaving his wheelchair-bound wife for the wealthiest woman in Arizona (Cindy). They go nuclear, we go nuclear squared!

Your eyes are not deceiving you. This is the first (respectable) poll to show Obama in the lead in my home state of North Carolina. Check it out here:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/north_carolina/electio n_2008_north_carolina_presidential_elect ion

Note that the vast majority of polls had McCain up 1-5 points (there were a few ties) prior to the Republican Convention. After the convention, a few strange polls had McCain's margin at 11-20 points ahead, though most remained close or tied. The conventional wisdom was that the Palin pick was popular here. That seems odd to me because if you talk to my fellow North Carolinians, many abhor the idea of a woman (or black of any gender) in charge. I think it might reflect more on McCain's own "I was a war prisoner" narrative than the Palin pick, but the latter probably played a role with the moderates. Since the Palin bubble has begun to deflate, as well as McCain's own numbers began to crumble as the economy began to tank, the race became close again.

Note that Obama had only been ahead in a few polls in North Carolina, but these were all the much maligned Zogby Internet polls.

I live in Western North Carolina, which is considered one of the reddest parts of the states, although the area south of the Triad is Very Conservative, as are pockets in the East. The principal city in the Mountains of Western North Carolina is Asheville, where I live. It is a liberal jewel surrounded by the good ol' mountain boy culture. McCain bumper stickers are rare here in Asheville, which I've heard described as a smaller version of places like Boulder, CO or Austin, TX. It's hard to not see an Obama sticker around these parts. Bush barely carried this county (Buncombe) in 2004, but I seriously doubt Obama will not win here, at least 55-45. A ten point swing everywhere is what we'll need to have a fighting chance in NC, where Bush won by about 10 points in 2004, EVEN THOUGH John Edwards was on the ticket!

The conventional wisdom is that Virginia is much more likely to turn Blue than North Carolina, and that if Obama wins Virginia, he'll probably win the election without the need for NC's electoral votes. However, as indicated at 538.com, reliably Democratic states like PA, MI, WI, and MN are teetering between Lean Obama and Toss Up. Therefore, NC may be a big part of Plan B for Obama, along with Indiana. The questions is, should Obama double down on Plan A, or use his vast warchest to fund Plan B?

One things seems clear: If Obama makes it close in NC, that spells good news for Kay Hagan's attempt to knock out carpetbagger Elizabeth Dole.

In a stunning turnaround, Rep. Young (R-AK) is now leading Lt. Gov Sean Parnell by 145 votes, or 0.16%. For much of last night and early morning, Parnell had clung to a small lead in the hundreds of votes. As of 9:15 am EDT, Young had received 42461 votes to Parnell's 42316. Long-shot contender Garielle LeDoux was a distant third with 8589 votes, or about 9% of the vote. Check the latest results here:

http://www.elect.alaska.net/data/results .html

This race is important because it makes a big difference in our ability to take this seat in deep red Alaska. Democrat Ethan Berkowitz, who received over 35,000 votes in a 54%-37% win over Diane Benson in last night's primary, has a better chance of beating Young than Parnell, polling shows.